Research Article

Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey With The Grey Fourier Model

Serkan Taştan *
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Abstract

Tourism demand forecasting is one of the key issues to be addressed in the development of Turkey’s tourism industry. Accurate forecasting of tourism demand is very important in terms of tourism planning of both public and private sectors. The aim of this study is to forecast the tourism demand of Turkey with grey models. Therefore, tourism demand is handled with GM(1,1) grey model and FGM(1,1) grey model, which is obtained by modifying the residuals of the GM(1,1) model with Fourier series. A comparison of the performances of these models was made by using the annual data related to the total number of departing visitors for the 2003-2021 period. At the same time, short-term forecasts were made by using these models.The results show that FGM(1,1) model outperforms GM(1,1) model in modeling the tourism demand for Turkey. According to the mean absolute percentage error criterion taken into account to analyze the reliability of the models, both the 2003-2020 period predictions and the 2021 year tourism demand forecast of the FGM(1,1) model are at a high accuracy.

Keywords: GM(1,1); FGM(1,1); Grey model; Tourism; Demand forecasting

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How to Cite

APA

Taştan, S. (2022). TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ. Sivas Interdisipliner Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1-2), 96-106. https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC

AMA

1.Taştan S. TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ. SİTA. 2022;5(1-2):96-106. https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC

Chicago

Taştan, Serkan. 2022. “TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ”. Sivas Interdisipliner Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 5 (1-2): 96-106. https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC.

EndNote

Taştan S (01 Aralık 2022) TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ. Sivas Interdisipliner Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 5 1-2 96–106.

IEEE

[1]S. Taştan, “TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ”, SİTA, c. 5, sy 1-2, ss. 96–106, Ara. 2022, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC

ISNAD

Taştan, Serkan. “TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ”. Sivas Interdisipliner Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 5/1-2 (01 Aralık 2022): 96-106. https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC.

JAMA

1.Taştan S. TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ. SİTA. 2022;5:96–106.

MLA

Taştan, Serkan. “TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ”. Sivas Interdisipliner Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 5, sy 1-2, Aralık 2022, ss. 96-106, https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC.

Vancouver

1.Serkan Taştan. TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM TALEBİNİN GRİ FOURIER MODEL İLE ANALİZİ. SİTA [Internet]. 01 Aralık 2022;5(1-2):96-106. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA27UU94UC